My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by Raildudes dad »

Lots of info here. I'm pretty sure the mine was opened by PPG way back when. Mosaic sold it to Cargill in 2014
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=28410&p=288507&hili ... sh#p288507

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by Plannerdad »

This has been talked about and evaluated since the 70’s, according to a retired DEQ/DNR employee. PPG actually railbanked the segment from Hersey to Baldwin for a couple years after CSX abandoned Baldwin to Midland. I had a contact at PPG and they told me how much they paid CSX to keep the rail in place. I don’t recall the exact number, but it had several 0’s. The market cooled off and they stopped paying CSX and then the trail was built. There seems to be more discussion again and I hope it works out for one or both of the shortlines in the vicinity.

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by LansingRailFan »

GP-35 wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:00 pm
Would'nt it be more logical to put the rails back to Evert for Michigan Patash & Salt Co. That will happen sooner rather than latter. In case you did'nt know thats why the trees are being cleared next to the tracks west of Clare, this is going to be the trans-load for MP&S Co. There wont be any rails laid this year, but there going to fill and grade the yard this year. There's going to be two other trans-load areas but I'll save that for a latter date. MP&S Co. secured $ 950,000.00 for the plant and other related projects (rail). When its time to put the rails back to west of Evert the state is looking at building a connecter track somewhere around Farwell southwest over to the old C&O main. Tonnage is estimated to be 650,000 tons of Potash a year and around 1,000,000 tons of table salt a year. United States imports 92% of the nation use of Potash, and this Potash find in one of the purest Potash finds in the world. Production will begin in late 2024. I know everyone has heard about this before, but all the permits are in and ok'd and funding is secured, so it will be interesting. I can tell you for a fact that it will go to GLC, because they have all the right inter-changes with the class one railroads.
back of the napkin math if it all went by rail...

650,000 Tons of Potash equates to approx. 4,318 railcars of potash a year. (4318/261) = 16.54 cars a day

1,000,000 tons of table salt...table salt is shipped generally three different ways. If it's done all one of these ways, here's some back of the napkin math using 261 workdays a year...
- 4750 CU FT covered hoppers is 5,262 cars a year. (5262/261) = 20.16 cars a day
- 3230 CU FT pressure differential covered hoppers 7,740 cars a year. (7740/261) = 29.66 cars a day
- bagged, palletized and into boxcars...unknown at this time

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by Mike H »

LansingRailFan wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:23 pm

back of the napkin math if it all went by rail...

650,000 Tons of Potash equates to approx. 4,318 railcars of potash a year. (4318/261) = 16.54 cars a day

1,000,000 tons of table salt...table salt is shipped generally three different ways. If it's done all one of these ways, here's some back of the napkin math using 261 workdays a year...
- 4750 CU FT covered hoppers is 5,262 cars a year. (5262/261) = 20.16 cars a day
- 3230 CU FT pressure differential covered hoppers 7,740 cars a year. (7740/261) = 29.66 cars a day
- bagged, palletized and into boxcars...unknown at this time
I'm not trying to be rude here, but your math is way, way off there bud.

Just so everyone is clear, there is absolutely zero chance that 100% of the volume for either of these products will leave the state. I can't remember what Michigan's potash consumption is, but last I was told by one of the guys developing this mine is that roughly half the potash produced will be consumed within the state. This means that any railroad hauling potash into the state will lose carloads because it will all be delivered by in state heavy trucks. 3 railroads could potentially benefit from this mine, but more will lose carloads because of this mine.

For discussion purposes, let's say 100% of this traffic does move by rail. Here are the yearly carloads based on the tonnage provided in the last post.

650,000 tons of potash = 5,652-5,909 cars per year

1,000,000 tons of salt (the type doesn't make a difference if it all goes by rail) = 8,696-9,091 cars per year

Hopefully this is helpful & clears up some of the volume questions.

Mike H

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by AARR »

Back in 1997 when potash traffic discussions first started and the mines owner(s) instructed TSBY to build a transload in Cadillac it was for the purpose of shipping it to ports destined for China. Obviously much has changed.
Mike H wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:01 am
Just so everyone is clear, there is absolutely zero chance that 100% of the volume for either of these products will leave the state. I can't remember what Michigan's potash consumption is, but last I was told by one of the guys developing this mine is that roughly half the potash produced will be consumed within the state. This means that any railroad hauling potash into the state will lose carloads because it will all be delivered by in state heavy trucks. 3 railroads could potentially benefit from this mine, but more will lose carloads because of this mine.
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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by LansingRailFan »

Mike H wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:01 am
LansingRailFan wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:23 pm

back of the napkin math if it all went by rail...

650,000 Tons of Potash equates to approx. 4,318 railcars of potash a year. (4318/261) = 16.54 cars a day

1,000,000 tons of table salt...table salt is shipped generally three different ways. If it's done all one of these ways, here's some back of the napkin math using 261 workdays a year...
- 4750 CU FT covered hoppers is 5,262 cars a year. (5262/261) = 20.16 cars a day
- 3230 CU FT pressure differential covered hoppers 7,740 cars a year. (7740/261) = 29.66 cars a day
- bagged, palletized and into boxcars...unknown at this time
I'm not trying to be rude here, but your math is way, way off there bud.

Just so everyone is clear, there is absolutely zero chance that 100% of the volume for either of these products will leave the state. I can't remember what Michigan's potash consumption is, but last I was told by one of the guys developing this mine is that roughly half the potash produced will be consumed within the state. This means that any railroad hauling potash into the state will lose carloads because it will all be delivered by in state heavy trucks. 3 railroads could potentially benefit from this mine, but more will lose carloads because of this mine.

For discussion purposes, let's say 100% of this traffic does move by rail. Here are the yearly carloads based on the tonnage provided in the last post.

650,000 tons of potash = 5,652- :mrgreen: :D 5,909 cars per year

1,000,000 tons of salt (the type doesn't make a difference if it all goes by rail) :mrgreen: = 8,696-9,091 cars per year

Hopefully this is helpful & clears up some of the volume questions.

Mike H
Mike,

Back of the napkin implies several beers. I actually used a coaster, a sticky note and was on the phone w a friend. :D Amateurs...sheesh!

And I believe you when you say that the railroads will end up losing carloads, especially when so much potash is brought in via rail. I can think of the unit trains to Sargeants and ADM Webberville as casualties, let alone the individual carloads lost.
Last edited by LansingRailFan on Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by Raildudes dad »

Throw this in the equation. Table salt = small packages. Set up a packaging plant on site. Mosaic / Cargill did for their salt products. Rubber tire to Chicago and the whole North American continent is your market. I talked to one of the Mosaic guys 25 years ago. He said the smaller the package the higher the profit. They were aiming at markets up to 400 miles away. All the potash left in Michigan Special trucks. While it was called a potash mine in reality it was a salt mine with salt the primary extraction.

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by GP-35 »

When I put the tonnage out there I didnt say that all of the potash and salt was going to go by rail!!!

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by AARR »

Back in 1997 projections were for 720 cars annually transloaded in Cadillac. After a handful it was discontinued when the wind blew the potash dust across the field and coated a car dealer's vehicles and TSBY had to pay to clean the cars.
GP-35 wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:17 am
When I put the tonnage out there I didnt say that all of the potash and salt was going to go by rail!!!
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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by Standard Railfan »

Raildudes dad wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:56 am
Throw this in the equation. Table salt = small packages.
In this era of industrial food production “table salt” is often shipped in rather large packages suitable for rail shipment.

I don’t think Frito-Lay buys salt in the little cardboard shakers. :lol:

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by Raildudes dad »

Think super sacks :) Just sprinkle with a hilo. LOL Tough to sprinkle with a covered hopper LOL LOL

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by J T »

dalek ling wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:09 pm
Here is my report if GLC ever made the white pine trail into a line from Cadillac to Grand Rapids.

So if they did this they will have to share tracks with Marquette rail for a while and then CSX to go to the yard in Wyoming.

They will have to remove 44 miles of concrete (Cadillac to Big Rapids) the rest is just trails gravel

They will have to build 92 Miles of tracks (1 mile of tracks =1 mil) so at first it will be around 92 million $

If they want to do this they need customers there is a lot of Sand mills in the area in Paris and Big Rapids and maybe more and they have the cars for that but there is a another customer they could have, the Yoplait factory in Reed city they could buy up to 15 refrigerated cars like what they use for the Tropicana juice train. One refrigerated car is 140,000$ so it would be if they buy 15 it would be 2,100,000$

So in total it would be 97,100,000$ I know there is more but this what I think how much it would be.
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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by AARR »

Yes, but it needs more activity.
viewforum.php?f=24
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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by J T »

AARR wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:52 pm
Yes, but it needs more activity.
viewforum.php?f=24
This seems like the perfect thread for it. :wink:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jimthias/
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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by LansingRailFan »

J T wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:33 pm
AARR wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:52 pm
Yes, but it needs more activity.
viewforum.php?f=24
This seems like the perfect thread for it. :wink:
Don’t move a public thread to a private forum, plz. That would really be unfair to all of us forum members that are excluded from the private forums.

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Re: My “somewhat” report on how much it would be to turn the white pine trail into a rail line.

Unread post by ~Z~ »

LansingRailFan wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:44 pm
Don’t move a public thread to a private forum, plz. That would really be unfair to all of us forum members that are excluded from the private forums.
Oh, no one is excluded from those private forums. A couple of them (Paper Railroads and SuperLongThreads) were setup because they were so far off of the typical railfan interests, that we moved them out of the public view. If you want to view them, pretty easy:
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