Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

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bnsfben
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Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by bnsfben »

Has anyone heard if/when Amtrak will be resuming the 6 trains between Pontiac and Chicago?

If there isn’t enough demand today, I find it hard to believe the demand will ever come back. People and companies are fleeing high cost cities like Chicago, so the demand to go to Chicago has likely been significantly reduced in the long term.

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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by ns8401 »

bnsfben wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:50 pm
Has anyone heard if/when Amtrak will be resuming the 6 trains between Pontiac and Chicago?

If there isn’t enough demand today, I find it hard to believe the demand will ever come back. People and companies are fleeing high cost cities like Chicago, so the demand to go to Chicago has likely been significantly reduced in the long term.
They are targeting summer or fall right now.
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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by Saturnalia »

bnsfben wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:50 pm
Has anyone heard if/when Amtrak will be resuming the 6 trains between Pontiac and Chicago?

If there isn’t enough demand today, I find it hard to believe the demand will ever come back. People and companies are fleeing high cost cities like Chicago, so the demand to go to Chicago has likely been significantly reduced in the long term.
Demand will bounce back a lot more than it has once leisure travel really resumes in force and most of the business traffic will come back. Obviously it remains to be seen but for most, the allure of permanent work-from-home is waning and everybody I know who has returned to the office has been glad to do so for a variety of factors from more effective meetings and teamwork to just being able to focus better.

Chicago and Detroit are both quite commuter-centric, with much less reliance on downtown residents than New York City, for instance. People might be fleeing downtown to some extent, they are not really leaving the suburbs, per se. In fact, there is some evidence that demand may return stronger than it may have otherwise, as plenty of folks moved out of downtown to the suburbs, but will still ultimately have a job downtown.

As for the Michigan Amtrak services, there never really was a huge reliance on business travel. A lot of it was leisure day-tripping to Chicago, which should come back once people feel reasonably safe again and attractions such as the ballparks, concerts and festivals resume in force.

I think there is reason to be fairly bullish on the return. A 10-15% net ridership drop wouldn't surprise me, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it comes back nearly 100% or even sees an increase. There are literally hundreds of billions of dollars in savings between individuals and companies sitting on the sidelines and that will eventually lead to additional spending one way or another. As long as the vaccines are able to really have this stuff tamped down by June/July, I think some folks will be really taken aback by just how strong things recover. We're already leading the world in that department and folks are definitely ready to drop a brick on the gas pedal as soon as the COVID risk has waned.
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jrgerber
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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by jrgerber »

There are a lot of workers who will prefer to work from home and companies will let them because it saves them $$$$. There may be hybrid work schedules some,days in and some out. There are alot of commercial office space investors and owners who are concerned about potential vacant space.

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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by justalurker66 »

The pandemic has given companies who can allow their people to work from home a reason to let those people try. A year ago many companies were struggling with creating and implementing work at home plans and policies to manage such arrangements. Some companies were left with no choice. Either their type of work did not allow work from home, their technology barriers makes work from home difficult or state mandates required work from home where possible.

Companies are now approaching a choice. Early pandemic months may have shown an increase in productivity (after the initial adjustment to technology barriers) as people worked together to make the best of the situation none had chosen. Statistically productivity dropped later in the year as people hit their stride - which was not as fast as when they started the year.

The job market has changed ... people who think they could do any job from home are now applying to do so. But it is coming at a price of what market the job is based in. And if you don't like the rate, the employer can find someone else willing to work from their home.

It has been an interesting experiment - but I expect old patterns will return. Companies will want to see butts in the seats in their buildings. They will want to see teams in collaboration rooms instead of collaboration on teams.


As far as the trains ... yes, they will be back. They are state supported so if Amtrak wants the money they need to run the trains.

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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by PatAzo »

Will the state have the money to fund the return to six trains? They tried to paint a rosy picture in the news saying the budget was coming in $1.2B better than expected, that was after forecasting a $3.5B short fall earlier in the year. Unless Uncle Sam keeps bank rolling everyone the state will have to make some choices.

As for working from home it is situational. Some jobs and some people adapt to it well while others do not. Close on the heals of working from home is are the methods to monitor you while working from home. Camera on so you and the back ground can be observed. Analytics on what files are opened, how long, how many saves, key strokes etc. Amazon's productivity algorithm has gone beyond the warehouse worker and now decides if office workers should be canned.

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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by ns8401 »

PatAzo wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:37 pm
Will the state have the money to fund the return to six trains? They tried to paint a rosy picture in the news saying the budget was coming in $1.2B better than expected, that was after forecasting a $3.5B short fall earlier in the year. Unless Uncle Sam keeps bank rolling everyone the state will have to make some choices.

As for working from home it is situational. Some jobs and some people adapt to it well while others do not. Close on the heals of working from home is are the methods to monitor you while working from home. Camera on so you and the back ground can be observed. Analytics on what files are opened, how long, how many saves, key strokes etc. Amazon's productivity algorithm has gone beyond the warehouse worker and now decides if office workers should be canned.
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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by justalurker66 »

ns8401 wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:14 pm
The trains are safe.
So ... any idea as to when they will be running (as asked in the first post)?

With the fourth wave starting and Michigan's recent spike I would not say "the pandemic is over, everything is back to normal". I'd expect there be a few more months before Amtrak and most businesses will be "normal". October?

The LD trains will return at the end of May (thanks in part to directed congressional funding). That sounded reasonable in January and feels a long way off. I am not expecting the passenger load to be "normal" in June but at least the trains will be there for people to ride.

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Re: Amtrak Wolverine Full Service Resuming?

Unread post by ns8401 »

justalurker66 wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:49 pm
ns8401 wrote:
Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:14 pm
The trains are safe.
So ... any idea as to when they will be running (as asked in the first post)?

With the fourth wave starting and Michigan's recent spike I would not say "the pandemic is over, everything is back to normal". I'd expect there be a few more months before Amtrak and most businesses will be "normal". October?

The LD trains will return at the end of May (thanks in part to directed congressional funding). That sounded reasonable in January and feels a long way off. I am not expecting the passenger load to be "normal" in June but at least the trains will be there for people to ride.
The state has been targeting late summer so think July/August-ish. I think they want to have it going before school comes back in the fall.
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